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Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?

The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers’ analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the multi...

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Main Authors: Nur Ain Shahrier, *, Chuah, Lay Lian
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: World Scientific Publishing Company 2017
Subjects:
HC Economic History and Conditions
Online Access:http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/788/1/Nur%20Ain%20Estimating%20Malalysia%27s%20output.pdf
http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/788/
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spelling my.sunway.eprints.7882019-06-03T05:14:12Z http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/788/ Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap? Nur Ain Shahrier, * Chuah, Lay Lian HC Economic History and Conditions The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers’ analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the multivariate and structural models are mainly underpinned by theory and captured the concept of potential output better, most policymakers still maintain a suite of models to preserve diversity. Diversity provides a greater scope for cross-checking the robustness of results. The paper attempts to contribute by first, providing a critical assessment of the different models in estimating potential output and the output gap, and, second, the usefulness of each models in terms of assessing the drivers of future potential output, predicting price trends and identifying sources of inflation in the economy. World Scientific Publishing Company 2017 Article PeerReviewed text en cc_by_nc_4 http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/788/1/Nur%20Ain%20Estimating%20Malalysia%27s%20output.pdf Nur Ain Shahrier, * and Chuah, Lay Lian (2017) Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap? Singapore Economic Review. pp. 1-28. ISSN 0217-5908 10.1142/S0217590817500217
institution Sunway University
building Sunway Campus Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Sunway University
content_source Sunway Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/
language English
topic HC Economic History and Conditions
spellingShingle HC Economic History and Conditions
Nur Ain Shahrier, *
Chuah, Lay Lian
Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?
description The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers’ analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the multivariate and structural models are mainly underpinned by theory and captured the concept of potential output better, most policymakers still maintain a suite of models to preserve diversity. Diversity provides a greater scope for cross-checking the robustness of results. The paper attempts to contribute by first, providing a critical assessment of the different models in estimating potential output and the output gap, and, second, the usefulness of each models in terms of assessing the drivers of future potential output, predicting price trends and identifying sources of inflation in the economy.
format Article
author Nur Ain Shahrier, *
Chuah, Lay Lian
author_facet Nur Ain Shahrier, *
Chuah, Lay Lian
author_sort Nur Ain Shahrier, *
title Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?
title_short Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?
title_full Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?
title_fullStr Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?
title_full_unstemmed Estimating Malaysia's output gap: Have we closed the gap?
title_sort estimating malaysia's output gap: have we closed the gap?
publisher World Scientific Publishing Company
publishDate 2017
url http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/788/1/Nur%20Ain%20Estimating%20Malalysia%27s%20output.pdf
http://eprints.sunway.edu.my/788/
_version_ 1644324401096687616
score 13.211869

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