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A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component

The adoption of forecasting approaches such as the multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is preferred in business, especially for the prediction of future events having seasonal and other causal variations. However, in the MHW model the initial values of the time-series parameters and smoothing...

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Main Authors: Kays, H. M.Emrul, Karim, A.N. Mustafizul, Che Daud, Mohd Radzi, Varela, Leonilde, Putnik, Göran, Machado, Jose
Format: Article
Language:English
English
English
Published: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) 2018
Subjects:
TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements
TS Manufactures
Online Access:http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/1/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_article.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/2/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_scopus.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/13/63927_A%20collaborative%20multiplicative%20Holt-Winters%20forecasting%20approach%20with%20dynamic%20fuzzy-level%20component_WOS.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/
http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/4/530
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spelling my.iium.irep.639272019-01-24T01:29:56Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component Kays, H. M.Emrul Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Che Daud, Mohd Radzi Varela, Leonilde Putnik, Göran Machado, Jose TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements TS Manufactures The adoption of forecasting approaches such as the multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is preferred in business, especially for the prediction of future events having seasonal and other causal variations. However, in the MHW model the initial values of the time-series parameters and smoothing constants are incorporated by a recursion process to estimate and update the level (LT), growth rate (bT) and seasonal component (SNT). The current practice of integrating and/or determining the initial value of LT is a stationary process, as it restricts the scope of adjustment with the progression of time and, thereby, the forecasting accuracy is compromised, while the periodic updating of LT is avoided, presumably due to the computational complexity. To overcome this obstacle, a fuzzy logic-based prediction model is developed to evaluate LT dynamically and to embed its value into the conventional MHW approach. The developed model is implemented in the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox along with an optimal smoothing constant-seeking program. The new model, proposed as a collaborative approach, is tested with real-life data gathered from a local manufacturer and also for two industrial cases extracted from literature. In all cases, a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy is achieved. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) 2018-03-30 Article NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/1/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_article.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/2/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_scopus.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/13/63927_A%20collaborative%20multiplicative%20Holt-Winters%20forecasting%20approach%20with%20dynamic%20fuzzy-level%20component_WOS.pdf Kays, H. M.Emrul and Karim, A.N. Mustafizul and Che Daud, Mohd Radzi and Varela, Leonilde and Putnik, Göran and Machado, Jose (2018) A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 8 (4). pp. 1-28. ISSN 2076-3417 http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/4/530 10.3390/app8040530
institution Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia
building IIUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider International Islamic University Malaysia
content_source IIUM Repository (IREP)
url_provider http://irep.iium.edu.my/
language English
English
English
topic TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements
TS Manufactures
spellingShingle TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements
TS Manufactures
Kays, H. M.Emrul
Karim, A.N. Mustafizul
Che Daud, Mohd Radzi
Varela, Leonilde
Putnik, Göran
Machado, Jose
A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
description The adoption of forecasting approaches such as the multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is preferred in business, especially for the prediction of future events having seasonal and other causal variations. However, in the MHW model the initial values of the time-series parameters and smoothing constants are incorporated by a recursion process to estimate and update the level (LT), growth rate (bT) and seasonal component (SNT). The current practice of integrating and/or determining the initial value of LT is a stationary process, as it restricts the scope of adjustment with the progression of time and, thereby, the forecasting accuracy is compromised, while the periodic updating of LT is avoided, presumably due to the computational complexity. To overcome this obstacle, a fuzzy logic-based prediction model is developed to evaluate LT dynamically and to embed its value into the conventional MHW approach. The developed model is implemented in the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox along with an optimal smoothing constant-seeking program. The new model, proposed as a collaborative approach, is tested with real-life data gathered from a local manufacturer and also for two industrial cases extracted from literature. In all cases, a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy is achieved.
format Article
author Kays, H. M.Emrul
Karim, A.N. Mustafizul
Che Daud, Mohd Radzi
Varela, Leonilde
Putnik, Göran
Machado, Jose
author_facet Kays, H. M.Emrul
Karim, A.N. Mustafizul
Che Daud, Mohd Radzi
Varela, Leonilde
Putnik, Göran
Machado, Jose
author_sort Kays, H. M.Emrul
title A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_short A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_full A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_fullStr A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_full_unstemmed A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_sort collaborative multiplicative holt-winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
publisher Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
publishDate 2018
url http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/1/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_article.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/2/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_scopus.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/13/63927_A%20collaborative%20multiplicative%20Holt-Winters%20forecasting%20approach%20with%20dynamic%20fuzzy-level%20component_WOS.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/
http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/4/530
_version_ 1643618800785948672
score 13.222552

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