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Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia

Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases...

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Main Authors: Abas, Norzaida, Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah, Abdul Halim, Syafrina, Osman, Noor Shazwani
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Akademia Baru 2017
Subjects:
QA Mathematics
Online Access:http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/
http://www.akademiabaru.com/doc/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
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spelling my.iium.irep.583632018-01-12T12:17:22Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia Abas, Norzaida Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah Abdul Halim, Syafrina Osman, Noor Shazwani QA Mathematics Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases are more distinct in urban and suburban areas. Preparedness strategies of dengue cases could be more successful with some comprehensive and technical analysis on disease incidences. Hence, the present study analyses dengue cases using mathematical modelling in the state of Penang, one of the more urbanised state. In particular, two time series models are fitted to the dengue data from the region in order to identify the mathematical model that best describe the data. Results show that both proposed models are able to represent the cases rather well; however numerical inspection revealed that Double Exponential Smoothing method is the better choice. Subsequently, the identified model is used to make forecasting on the number of expected cases. Results show that dengue cases in Penang are expected to increase gradually. Penerbit Akademia Baru 2017-10 Article REM application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf Abas, Norzaida and Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah and Abdul Halim, Syafrina and Osman, Noor Shazwani (2017) Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia. Journal of Advanced Research Design, 37 (1). pp. 9-15. ISSN 2289-7984 http://www.akademiabaru.com/doc/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
institution Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia
building IIUM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider International Islamic University Malaysia
content_source IIUM Repository (IREP)
url_provider http://irep.iium.edu.my/
language English
topic QA Mathematics
spellingShingle QA Mathematics
Abas, Norzaida
Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah
Abdul Halim, Syafrina
Osman, Noor Shazwani
Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
description Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases are more distinct in urban and suburban areas. Preparedness strategies of dengue cases could be more successful with some comprehensive and technical analysis on disease incidences. Hence, the present study analyses dengue cases using mathematical modelling in the state of Penang, one of the more urbanised state. In particular, two time series models are fitted to the dengue data from the region in order to identify the mathematical model that best describe the data. Results show that both proposed models are able to represent the cases rather well; however numerical inspection revealed that Double Exponential Smoothing method is the better choice. Subsequently, the identified model is used to make forecasting on the number of expected cases. Results show that dengue cases in Penang are expected to increase gradually.
format Article
author Abas, Norzaida
Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah
Abdul Halim, Syafrina
Osman, Noor Shazwani
author_facet Abas, Norzaida
Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah
Abdul Halim, Syafrina
Osman, Noor Shazwani
author_sort Abas, Norzaida
title Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_short Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_full Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_fullStr Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_sort mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in penang, malaysia
publisher Penerbit Akademia Baru
publishDate 2017
url http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/
http://www.akademiabaru.com/doc/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
_version_ 1643615338729832448
score 13.211869

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