China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands

This paper will focus on the “demographic onus effect” to challenge established cognitions of rising China. The country’s demographic dynamics, especially the trade-off between a military build-up and welfare spending, will most probably lead to what might be called a “geriatric peace” by around 203...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Matsumura, Masahiro
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit UKM 2014
Online Access:http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/1/Masahiro__Matsumura_41%282%29_%28December_2014%29.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/
http://www.ukm.my/jebat/v2/?cont=a&item=1&id_vol=53
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
id my-ukm.journal.8466
record_format eprints
spelling my-ukm.journal.84662016-12-14T06:47:16Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/ China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands Matsumura, Masahiro This paper will focus on the “demographic onus effect” to challenge established cognitions of rising China. The country’s demographic dynamics, especially the trade-off between a military build-up and welfare spending, will most probably lead to what might be called a “geriatric peace” by around 2030. This is because, due to its long-time one child policy, China is set to confront an unprecedented ageing population before becoming an advanced industrial country. Until then, however, the Chinese will have the fiscal wherewithal to continue the country’s formidable military accrual. China is also likely to become far more belligerent by manipulating nationalist sentiments at home, alongside using foreign policy to divert growing popular discontent. This paper will analyze China’s demographic dynamics and explore the implications of the ageing population to Japan’s security, with the focus on a possible contingency over the Senkaku Islands as the most likely flash point. It will conclude with policy recommendations for Japan and the U.S. to weather possible China’s bellicosity during the next ten to fifteen years. Penerbit UKM 2014-12 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/1/Masahiro__Matsumura_41%282%29_%28December_2014%29.pdf Matsumura, Masahiro (2014) China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands. Jebat: Malaysian Journal of History, Politics and Strategic Studies, 41 (2). pp. 1-22. ISSN 2180-0251 http://www.ukm.my/jebat/v2/?cont=a&item=1&id_vol=53
institution Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
building Perpustakaan Tun Sri Lanang Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
content_source UKM Journal Article Repository
url_provider http://journalarticle.ukm.my/
language English
description This paper will focus on the “demographic onus effect” to challenge established cognitions of rising China. The country’s demographic dynamics, especially the trade-off between a military build-up and welfare spending, will most probably lead to what might be called a “geriatric peace” by around 2030. This is because, due to its long-time one child policy, China is set to confront an unprecedented ageing population before becoming an advanced industrial country. Until then, however, the Chinese will have the fiscal wherewithal to continue the country’s formidable military accrual. China is also likely to become far more belligerent by manipulating nationalist sentiments at home, alongside using foreign policy to divert growing popular discontent. This paper will analyze China’s demographic dynamics and explore the implications of the ageing population to Japan’s security, with the focus on a possible contingency over the Senkaku Islands as the most likely flash point. It will conclude with policy recommendations for Japan and the U.S. to weather possible China’s bellicosity during the next ten to fifteen years.
format Article
author Matsumura, Masahiro
spellingShingle Matsumura, Masahiro
China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
author_facet Matsumura, Masahiro
author_sort Matsumura, Masahiro
title China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_short China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_full China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_fullStr China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_full_unstemmed China`s demographic onus and its implications for The Japan-U.S. Alliance: the increasing need for Deterring China`s Aggression against The Senkaku Islands
title_sort china`s demographic onus and its implications for the japan-u.s. alliance: the increasing need for deterring china`s aggression against the senkaku islands
publisher Penerbit UKM
publishDate 2014
url http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/1/Masahiro__Matsumura_41%282%29_%28December_2014%29.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/8466/
http://www.ukm.my/jebat/v2/?cont=a&item=1&id_vol=53
_version_ 1643737474823880704
score 13.211869