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On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models

Inhomogeneous cluster point processes have been considered for modeling the distribution of earthquake epicenters with the spatial trend and clustering patterns. In particular, the spatial trend is assessed by the intensity model involving geological variables. However, for intensity with a log-line...

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Main Authors: Susanto, Tabita Yuni, Choiruddin, Achmad, Purnomo, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2023
Online Access:http://journalarticle.ukm.my/21628/1/SD%2025.pdf
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spelling my-ukm.journal.216282023-05-24T12:56:25Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/21628/ On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models Susanto, Tabita Yuni Choiruddin, Achmad Purnomo, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo Inhomogeneous cluster point processes have been considered for modeling the distribution of earthquake epicenters with the spatial trend and clustering patterns. In particular, the spatial trend is assessed by the intensity model involving geological variables. However, for intensity with a log-linear form, it may be too restrictive and not appropriate for earthquake distribution. In this study, we consider the Cauchy cluster process with the log-additive intensity model to analyze the distribution of major earthquake occurrences in Sumatra, Indonesia. The estimation procedure follows the standard two-step estimation technique, where the first step adapts the method for the Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) using penalized iteratively reweighted least squares (PIRLS) algorithm, and the second step employs the second-order composite likelihood. For the earthquake analysis in Sumatra, the log-additive intensity shows more flexibility to determine the contribution of each geological factor, especially to capture the effect of the nearest distance to the fault which is far from log-linear. In addition, compared to the log-linear model, the Cauchy cluster process with a log-additive intensity model performs better with a smaller Akaike Information Criterion’s (AIC) value and a sharper envelope K-function. The estimated number of mainshocks is around 114 with aftershocks spread by 14 km around the mainshocks. We detect three hotspots for the major earthquake in Sumatra: the northern part (Aceh and North Sumatra), the western part (Mentawai, Nias, and Simeulue), and Bengkulu. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2023 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/21628/1/SD%2025.pdf Susanto, Tabita Yuni and Choiruddin, Achmad and Purnomo, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo (2023) On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models. Sains Malaysiana, 52 (2). pp. 655-667. ISSN 0126-6039 http://www.ukm.my/jsm/index.html
institution Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
building Tun Sri Lanang Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
content_source UKM Journal Article Repository
url_provider http://journalarticle.ukm.my/
language English
description Inhomogeneous cluster point processes have been considered for modeling the distribution of earthquake epicenters with the spatial trend and clustering patterns. In particular, the spatial trend is assessed by the intensity model involving geological variables. However, for intensity with a log-linear form, it may be too restrictive and not appropriate for earthquake distribution. In this study, we consider the Cauchy cluster process with the log-additive intensity model to analyze the distribution of major earthquake occurrences in Sumatra, Indonesia. The estimation procedure follows the standard two-step estimation technique, where the first step adapts the method for the Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) using penalized iteratively reweighted least squares (PIRLS) algorithm, and the second step employs the second-order composite likelihood. For the earthquake analysis in Sumatra, the log-additive intensity shows more flexibility to determine the contribution of each geological factor, especially to capture the effect of the nearest distance to the fault which is far from log-linear. In addition, compared to the log-linear model, the Cauchy cluster process with a log-additive intensity model performs better with a smaller Akaike Information Criterion’s (AIC) value and a sharper envelope K-function. The estimated number of mainshocks is around 114 with aftershocks spread by 14 km around the mainshocks. We detect three hotspots for the major earthquake in Sumatra: the northern part (Aceh and North Sumatra), the western part (Mentawai, Nias, and Simeulue), and Bengkulu.
format Article
author Susanto, Tabita Yuni
Choiruddin, Achmad
Purnomo, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo
spellingShingle Susanto, Tabita Yuni
Choiruddin, Achmad
Purnomo, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo
On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
author_facet Susanto, Tabita Yuni
Choiruddin, Achmad
Purnomo, Jerry Dwi Trijoyo
author_sort Susanto, Tabita Yuni
title On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
title_short On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
title_full On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
title_fullStr On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
title_full_unstemmed On the earthquake distribution modeling in Sumatra by Cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
title_sort on the earthquake distribution modeling in sumatra by cauchy cluster process : comparing log-linear and log-additive intensity models
publisher Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate 2023
url http://journalarticle.ukm.my/21628/1/SD%2025.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/21628/
http://www.ukm.my/jsm/index.html
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score 13.211869

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