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Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmace...

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Main Authors: Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin,, Mohd Hafiz Mohd,, Noor Atinah Ahmad,, Kamarul Imran Musa,
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2021
Online Access:http://journalarticle.ukm.my/17600/1/27.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/17600/
https://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid50bil8_2021/KandunganJilid50Bil8_2021.html
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spelling my-ukm.journal.176002021-11-19T02:53:23Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/17600/ Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin, Mohd Hafiz Mohd, Noor Atinah Ahmad, Kamarul Imran Musa, COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies implemented by Malaysian government in the year 2020 using a mathematical model with SIR-neural network approaches. It is observed that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic and, Malaysia had succeeded to flatten the infection curve at the end of the Conditional MCO (CMCO) period. However, the signs of ‘flattening’ with R0 of less than one had been taken as a signal to ease up on some restrictions enforced before. Though the government has made compulsory the use of face masks in public places to control the spread of COVID-19, we observe a contrasting finding from our model with regards to the impacts of wearing mask policies in Malaysia on R0 and the infection curve. Additionally, other events such as the Sabah State Election at the end of third quarter of 2020 has also imposed a dramatic COVID-19 burden on the society and the healthcare systems. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2021-08 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/17600/1/27.pdf Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin, and Mohd Hafiz Mohd, and Noor Atinah Ahmad, and Kamarul Imran Musa, (2021) Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach. Sains Malaysiana, 50 (8). pp. 2469-2478. ISSN 0126-6039 https://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid50bil8_2021/KandunganJilid50Bil8_2021.html
institution Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
building Tun Sri Lanang Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
content_source UKM Journal Article Repository
url_provider http://journalarticle.ukm.my/
language English
description COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies implemented by Malaysian government in the year 2020 using a mathematical model with SIR-neural network approaches. It is observed that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic and, Malaysia had succeeded to flatten the infection curve at the end of the Conditional MCO (CMCO) period. However, the signs of ‘flattening’ with R0 of less than one had been taken as a signal to ease up on some restrictions enforced before. Though the government has made compulsory the use of face masks in public places to control the spread of COVID-19, we observe a contrasting finding from our model with regards to the impacts of wearing mask policies in Malaysia on R0 and the infection curve. Additionally, other events such as the Sabah State Election at the end of third quarter of 2020 has also imposed a dramatic COVID-19 burden on the society and the healthcare systems.
format Article
author Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin,
Mohd Hafiz Mohd,
Noor Atinah Ahmad,
Kamarul Imran Musa,
spellingShingle Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin,
Mohd Hafiz Mohd,
Noor Atinah Ahmad,
Kamarul Imran Musa,
Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach
author_facet Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin,
Mohd Hafiz Mohd,
Noor Atinah Ahmad,
Kamarul Imran Musa,
author_sort Mohammad Subhi Jamiluddin,
title Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach
title_short Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach
title_full Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach
title_fullStr Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach
title_full_unstemmed Situational analysis for COVID-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-type model with neural network approach
title_sort situational analysis for covid-19 : estimating transmission dynamics in malaysia using an sir-type model with neural network approach
publisher Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate 2021
url http://journalarticle.ukm.my/17600/1/27.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/17600/
https://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid50bil8_2021/KandunganJilid50Bil8_2021.html
_version_ 1718927134702960640
score 13.223943

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