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Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation

Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability. The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arise...

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Main Authors: Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar, Aimrun Wayayok,, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah,, Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim,
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020
Online Access:http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/1/3.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/
http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil10_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil10_2020.html
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spelling my-ukm.journal.159332020-12-10T20:30:18Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/ Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar Aimrun Wayayok, Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability. The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arises from the need to gain better understanding of the impacts of climate change. This study explores an approach based on weighted Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and temporal disaggregation method to develop future IDFs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. The work consists of 20 ensemble GCMs, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and two projection periods (2050s and 2080s). The study compared three statistical distributions and selected Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) being the best fitting distribution with baseline rainfall series and therefore used for IDF projection. The result obtained shows that, the highest rainfall intensities of 19.32, 35.07 and 39.12 mm/hr occurred under 2-, 5-, and 20 years return periods, respectively. IDFs from the multi-model ensemble GCMs have shown increasing intensity in the future for all the return periods. This study indicated that the method could produce promising results which can be extended to other catchments. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020-10 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/1/3.pdf Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar and Aimrun Wayayok, and Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, and Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim, (2020) Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation. Sains Malaysiana, 49 (10). pp. 2359-2371. ISSN 0126-6039 http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil10_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil10_2020.html
institution Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
building Tun Sri Lanang Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
content_source UKM Journal Article Repository
url_provider http://journalarticle.ukm.my/
language English
description Hydrological events are expected to increase in both magnitude and frequency in tropical areas due to climate variability. The Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves are important means of evaluating the efficiency of irrigation and drainage systems. The necessity to update IDF curves arises from the need to gain better understanding of the impacts of climate change. This study explores an approach based on weighted Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and temporal disaggregation method to develop future IDFs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. The work consists of 20 ensemble GCMs, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and two projection periods (2050s and 2080s). The study compared three statistical distributions and selected Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) being the best fitting distribution with baseline rainfall series and therefore used for IDF projection. The result obtained shows that, the highest rainfall intensities of 19.32, 35.07 and 39.12 mm/hr occurred under 2-, 5-, and 20 years return periods, respectively. IDFs from the multi-model ensemble GCMs have shown increasing intensity in the future for all the return periods. This study indicated that the method could produce promising results which can be extended to other catchments.
format Article
author Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar
Aimrun Wayayok,
Ahmad Fikri Abdullah,
Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim,
spellingShingle Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar
Aimrun Wayayok,
Ahmad Fikri Abdullah,
Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim,
Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
author_facet Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar
Aimrun Wayayok,
Ahmad Fikri Abdullah,
Muhamad Saufi Mohd Kassim,
author_sort Nasidi, Nuraddeen Mukhtar
title Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
title_short Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
title_full Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
title_fullStr Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
title_full_unstemmed Current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble GCMs and temporal disaggregation
title_sort current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves based on weighted ensemble gcms and temporal disaggregation
publisher Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate 2020
url http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/1/3.pdf
http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15933/
http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil10_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil10_2020.html
_version_ 1687394671373844480
score 13.211869

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