Staff View: A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia

A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia

Many astronomers have studied lunar crescent visibility throughout history. Its importance is unquestionable, especially in determining the local Islamic calendar and the dates of important Islamic events. Different criteria have been used to predict the possible visibility of the crescent moon du...

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Main Authors:	Nazhatulshima Ahmad,, Mohd Saiful Anwar Mohd Nawawi,, Mohd Zambri Zainuddin,, Zuhaili Mohd Nasir,, Rossita Mohamad Yunus,, Ibrahim Mohamed,
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020
Online Access:	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15357/1/15.pdf http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15357/ http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil4_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil4_2020.html
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id	my-ukm.journal.15357
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spelling	my-ukm.journal.153572020-10-16T00:56:18Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15357/ A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia Nazhatulshima Ahmad, Mohd Saiful Anwar Mohd Nawawi, Mohd Zambri Zainuddin, Zuhaili Mohd Nasir, Rossita Mohamad Yunus, Ibrahim Mohamed, Many astronomers have studied lunar crescent visibility throughout history. Its importance is unquestionable, especially in determining the local Islamic calendar and the dates of important Islamic events. Different criteria have been used to predict the possible visibility of the crescent moon during the sighting process. However, so far, the visibility models used are based on linear statistical theory, whereas the useful variables in this study are in the circular unit. Hence, in this paper, we propose new visibility tests using the circular regression model, which will split the data into three visibility categories; visible to the unaided eye, may need optical aid and not visible. We formulate the procedure to separate the categories using the residuals of the fitted circular regression model. We apply the model on 254 observations collected at Baitul Hilal Teluk Kemang Malaysia, starting from March 2000 to date. We show that the visibility test developed based on elongation of the moon (dependent variable) and altitude of the moon (independent variable) gives the smallest misclassification rate. From the statistical analysis, we propose the elongation of the moon 7.28°, altitude of the moon of 3.33° and arc of vision of 3.74 at sunset as the new crescent visibility criteria. The new criteria have a significant impact on improving the chance of observing the crescent moon and in producing a more accurate Islamic calendar in Malaysia. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2020-04 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15357/1/15.pdf Nazhatulshima Ahmad, and Mohd Saiful Anwar Mohd Nawawi, and Mohd Zambri Zainuddin, and Zuhaili Mohd Nasir, and Rossita Mohamad Yunus, and Ibrahim Mohamed, (2020) A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana, 49 (4). pp. 859-870. ISSN 0126-6039 http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil4_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil4_2020.html
institution	Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
building	Tun Sri Lanang Library
collection	Institutional Repository
continent	Asia
country	Malaysia
content_provider	Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
content_source	UKM Journal Article Repository
url_provider	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/
language	English
description	Many astronomers have studied lunar crescent visibility throughout history. Its importance is unquestionable, especially in determining the local Islamic calendar and the dates of important Islamic events. Different criteria have been used to predict the possible visibility of the crescent moon during the sighting process. However, so far, the visibility models used are based on linear statistical theory, whereas the useful variables in this study are in the circular unit. Hence, in this paper, we propose new visibility tests using the circular regression model, which will split the data into three visibility categories; visible to the unaided eye, may need optical aid and not visible. We formulate the procedure to separate the categories using the residuals of the fitted circular regression model. We apply the model on 254 observations collected at Baitul Hilal Teluk Kemang Malaysia, starting from March 2000 to date. We show that the visibility test developed based on elongation of the moon (dependent variable) and altitude of the moon (independent variable) gives the smallest misclassification rate. From the statistical analysis, we propose the elongation of the moon 7.28°, altitude of the moon of 3.33° and arc of vision of 3.74 at sunset as the new crescent visibility criteria. The new criteria have a significant impact on improving the chance of observing the crescent moon and in producing a more accurate Islamic calendar in Malaysia.
format	Article
author	Nazhatulshima Ahmad, Mohd Saiful Anwar Mohd Nawawi, Mohd Zambri Zainuddin, Zuhaili Mohd Nasir, Rossita Mohamad Yunus, Ibrahim Mohamed,
spellingShingle	Nazhatulshima Ahmad, Mohd Saiful Anwar Mohd Nawawi, Mohd Zambri Zainuddin, Zuhaili Mohd Nasir, Rossita Mohamad Yunus, Ibrahim Mohamed, A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia
author_facet	Nazhatulshima Ahmad, Mohd Saiful Anwar Mohd Nawawi, Mohd Zambri Zainuddin, Zuhaili Mohd Nasir, Rossita Mohamad Yunus, Ibrahim Mohamed,
author_sort	Nazhatulshima Ahmad,
title	A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia
title_short	A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia
title_full	A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia
title_fullStr	A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia
title_sort	new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of teluk kemang, malaysia
publisher	Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
publishDate	2020
url	http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15357/1/15.pdf http://journalarticle.ukm.my/15357/ http://www.ukm.my/jsm/malay_journals/jilid49bil4_2020/KandunganJilid49Bil4_2020.html
_version_	1681490383832350720
score	13.211869

A new crescent moon visibility criteria using circular regression model: a case study of Teluk Kemang, Malaysia

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