Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling
This study examines the influence of climate variables on paddy production in Malaysia, focusing on historical data from 1980 to 2016. The employed methodology incorporates Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to identify the critical predictors, Johansen cointegration tests to explore the long-term re...
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| Language: | en |
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2025
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/12790/1/J19431_513f8c82457206c11f2a6a538c2e0f81.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/12790/ https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.9768 |
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| author | Ibrahim, Nur Fazlin Abdullah, Mohd Asrul Affendi Olaniran, Oyebayo Ridwan |
| author_facet | Ibrahim, Nur Fazlin Abdullah, Mohd Asrul Affendi Olaniran, Oyebayo Ridwan |
| author_sort | Ibrahim, Nur Fazlin |
| building | UTHM Library |
| collection | Institutional Repository |
| content_provider | Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia |
| content_source | UTHM Institutional Repository |
| continent | Asia |
| country | Malaysia |
| description | This study examines the influence of climate variables on paddy production in Malaysia, focusing on historical data from 1980 to 2016. The employed methodology incorporates Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to identify the critical predictors, Johansen cointegration tests to explore the long-term
relationships, and Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) alongside Granger causality tests to analyze the dynamic interactions among variables. The performed analysis reveals consistent patterns in mean rainy days and rainfall amounts, indicating a relatively stable climate. In contrast, mean 24-hour
temperatures show an upward trend, while mean 24-hour relative humidity exhibits a decline. The findings identify the mean rainfall amount and 24-hour relative humidity as significant predictors of the paddy production. The advanced analytical techniques confirm two long-term cointegrating relationships among the variables. Granger causality tests reveal a bidirectional relationship between the mean rainfall amount and paddy production, suggesting mutual predictability. Conversely, the mean 24-hour relative humidity
exhibited a unidirectional relationship, predicting paddy production but not vice versa. These findings underscore the critical role of climate variables, particularly rainfall and humidity, in shaping the paddy cultivation outcomes in Malaysia. |
| format | Article |
| id | my.uthm.eprints-12790 |
| institution | Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | my.uthm.eprints-127902025-07-01T23:48:50Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/12790/ Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling Ibrahim, Nur Fazlin Abdullah, Mohd Asrul Affendi Olaniran, Oyebayo Ridwan HD Industries. Land use. Labor This study examines the influence of climate variables on paddy production in Malaysia, focusing on historical data from 1980 to 2016. The employed methodology incorporates Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to identify the critical predictors, Johansen cointegration tests to explore the long-term relationships, and Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) alongside Granger causality tests to analyze the dynamic interactions among variables. The performed analysis reveals consistent patterns in mean rainy days and rainfall amounts, indicating a relatively stable climate. In contrast, mean 24-hour temperatures show an upward trend, while mean 24-hour relative humidity exhibits a decline. The findings identify the mean rainfall amount and 24-hour relative humidity as significant predictors of the paddy production. The advanced analytical techniques confirm two long-term cointegrating relationships among the variables. Granger causality tests reveal a bidirectional relationship between the mean rainfall amount and paddy production, suggesting mutual predictability. Conversely, the mean 24-hour relative humidity exhibited a unidirectional relationship, predicting paddy production but not vice versa. These findings underscore the critical role of climate variables, particularly rainfall and humidity, in shaping the paddy cultivation outcomes in Malaysia. 2025 Article PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/12790/1/J19431_513f8c82457206c11f2a6a538c2e0f81.pdf Ibrahim, Nur Fazlin and Abdullah, Mohd Asrul Affendi and Olaniran, Oyebayo Ridwan (2025) Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling. Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, 25 (2). pp. 20811-20818. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.9768 |
| spellingShingle | HD Industries. Land use. Labor Ibrahim, Nur Fazlin Abdullah, Mohd Asrul Affendi Olaniran, Oyebayo Ridwan Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling |
| title | Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling |
| title_full | Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling |
| title_fullStr | Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling |
| title_short | Unraveling the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Malaysia: Insights from Vector Error Correction Modeling |
| title_sort | unraveling the impact of climate change on food security in malaysia: insights from vector error correction modeling |
| topic | HD Industries. Land use. Labor |
| url | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/12790/1/J19431_513f8c82457206c11f2a6a538c2e0f81.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/12790/ https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.9768 |
| url_provider | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/ |