A MAINTENANCE COST STUDY OF TRANSFORMERS BASED ON MARKOV MODEL UTILIZING FREQUENCY OF TRANSITION APPROACH
In this paper, a maintenance cost study of transformers based on the Markov Model (MM) utilizing the Health Index (HI) is presented. In total, 120 distribution transformers of oil type (33/11 kV and 30 MVA) are examined. The HI is computed based on condition assessment data. Based on the HI, the...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2018
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/27027/2/energies-11-02006.pdf http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/27027/ https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/8/2006 |
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| Summary: | In this paper, a maintenance cost study of transformers based on the Markov Model
(MM) utilizing the Health Index (HI) is presented. In total, 120 distribution transformers of oil
type (33/11 kV and 30 MVA) are examined. The HI is computed based on condition assessment
data. Based on the HI, the transformers are arranged according to its corresponding states, and the
transition probabilities are determined based on frequency of a transition approach utilizing the
transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. The future states of transformers
are determined based on the MM chain algorithm. Finally, the maintenance costs are estimated
based on future-state distribution probabilities according to the proposed maintenance policy model.
The study shows that the deterioration states of the transformer population for the year 2015 can be
predicted by MM based on the transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013.
Analysis on the relationship between the predicted and actual computed numbers of transformers
reveals that all transformer states are still within the 95% prediction interval. There is a 90% probability
that the transformer population will reach State 1 after 76 years and 69 years based on the transformer
transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. Based on the probability-state distributions,
it is found that the total maintenance cost increases gradually from Ringgit Malaysia (RM) 5.94 million
to RM 39.09 million based on transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and RM 37.56 million
for the year 2012/2013 within the 20 years prediction interval, respectively. |
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