Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach
This paper aims to forecast the performance of crude palm oil price (CPO) in Malaysia by comparing several econometric forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | en |
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Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
2018
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| Online Access: | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20085/1/jeko_523-19.pdf http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20085/ https://www.ukm.my/jem/issue/v52i3/ |
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| author | Norlin Khalid, Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, Sharmila Thinagar, Nur Fakhzan Marwan, |
| author_facet | Norlin Khalid, Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, Sharmila Thinagar, Nur Fakhzan Marwan, |
| author_sort | Norlin Khalid, |
| building | Tun Sri Lanang Library |
| collection | Institutional Repository |
| content_provider | Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia |
| content_source | UKM Journal Article Repository |
| continent | Asia |
| country | Malaysia |
| description | This paper aims to forecast the performance of crude palm oil price (CPO) in Malaysia by comparing several econometric
forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX). Using monthly time series
data spanning from 2008 to 2017, the main results revealed that ARIMAX model is the most accurate and the most
efficient model as compared to ARDL and ARIMA in forecasting the crude palm oil price. The results also show that the
spot price of palm oil is highly influenced by stock of palm oil, crude petroleum oil price and soybean oil price. The
empirical findings provide some insights for decision making and policy implementations, including the formulation
of strategies to help the industry in dealing with the price changes and thus enable the Malaysian palm oil industry to
continue dominating the international market. |
| format | Article |
| id | my-ukm.journal.20085 |
| institution | Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia |
| language | en |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | my-ukm.journal.200852022-10-12T00:49:37Z http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20085/ Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach Norlin Khalid, Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, Sharmila Thinagar, Nur Fakhzan Marwan, This paper aims to forecast the performance of crude palm oil price (CPO) in Malaysia by comparing several econometric forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous inputs (ARIMAX). Using monthly time series data spanning from 2008 to 2017, the main results revealed that ARIMAX model is the most accurate and the most efficient model as compared to ARDL and ARIMA in forecasting the crude palm oil price. The results also show that the spot price of palm oil is highly influenced by stock of palm oil, crude petroleum oil price and soybean oil price. The empirical findings provide some insights for decision making and policy implementations, including the formulation of strategies to help the industry in dealing with the price changes and thus enable the Malaysian palm oil industry to continue dominating the international market. Penerbit Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia 2018 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20085/1/jeko_523-19.pdf Norlin Khalid, and Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, and Sharmila Thinagar, and Nur Fakhzan Marwan, (2018) Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 52 (3). pp. 247-259. ISSN 0127-1962 https://www.ukm.my/jem/issue/v52i3/ |
| spellingShingle | Norlin Khalid, Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, Sharmila Thinagar, Nur Fakhzan Marwan, Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach |
| title | Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach |
| title_full | Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach |
| title_fullStr | Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach |
| title_short | Crude palm oil price forecasting in Malaysia : an econometric approach |
| title_sort | crude palm oil price forecasting in malaysia : an econometric approach |
| url | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20085/1/jeko_523-19.pdf http://journalarticle.ukm.my/20085/ https://www.ukm.my/jem/issue/v52i3/ |
| url_provider | http://journalarticle.ukm.my/ |