A statistical analysis of the relationship between Pc4 and Pc5 ULF waves, solar winds and geomagnetic storms for predicting earthquake precursor signatures in low latitude regions
Short-term earthquake forecasting is impossible due to the seismometer's limited sensitivity in detecting the generation of micro-fractures prior to an earthquake. Therefore, there is a strong desire for a non-seismological approach, and one of the most established methods is geomagnetic dis...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.unisza.edu.my/4847/1/FH03-ESERI-21-56904.pdf http://eprints.unisza.edu.my/4847/ |
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| Summary: | Short-term earthquake forecasting is impossible due to the seismometer's limited sensitivity in
detecting the generation of micro-fractures prior to an earthquake. Therefore, there is a strong desire
for a non-seismological approach, and one of the most established methods is geomagnetic
disturbance observation. Previous research shows that disturbances in the ground geomagnetic field
serves as a potential precursor for earthquake studies. It was discovered that electromagnetic waves
(EM) in the Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) range are a promising tool for studying the seismomagnetic
effect of earthquake precursors. This study used a multiple regression approach to analyse the
preliminary study on the relationship between Pc4 (6.7-22 mHz) and Pc5 (1.7-6.7 mHz) ULF magnetic
pulsations, solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices for predicting earthquake precursor
signatures in low latitude regions. The ground geomagnetic field was collected from Davao station
(7.00 N, 125.40 E), in the Philippines, which experiences nearby earthquake events (Magnitude <5.0,
depth <100 km and epicentre distance from magnetometer station <100 km). The Pc5 ULF waves show
the highest variance with four solar wind parameters, namely SWS, SWP, IMF-Bz, SIE and geomagnetic
indices (SYM/H) prior to an earthquake event based on the regression model value of R2 = 0.1510.
Furthermore, the IMF-Bz, SWS, SWP, SWE, and SYM/H were found to be significantly correlated with Pc5 ULF geomagnetic pulsation. This Pc5 ULF magnetic pulsation behaviour in solar winds and
geomagnetic storms establishes the possibility of using Pc5 to predict earthquakes. |
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